As I read this book I found the world it created fascinating and attractive on one hand - repulsive and disheartening on the other. As I read about the replacement of body parts, the Borg were not far from my thoughts. When I read about civilization living on in a virtual reality how could I not think about the Matrix. Every technology driven apocalypse was there.
In the earlier chapters Kurzweil attempts to explain to the skeptics how the singularity will come about explaining the fallacy of linear progression and the wonder of exponential growth. He goes into detail how the study of the human brain is progressing and how with just a little more study we will be able to reverse engineer the brain and duplicate the functions in a computer. He writes about each of the technological revolutions leading the way (He calls them Genetics – Nanotech – Robotics (GNR) meaning biotechnology, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence.). He discusses why he thinks we are alone in the Universe since we have not been overrun by super advanced civilizations that have already passed through the singularity (basically the Fermi Paradox). The last couple of chapters Kurzweil examines the critics who poo-poo the singularity. The last chapter he takes on each major area of criticism one at a time.
My main criticism is that Kurzweil approaches the singularity with unwavering optimism. His belief is almost a religious fervor. All his counter arguments to the critics are blue sky optimistic that disregards the critics as lacking vision. He acknowledges that many of these new technologies could also be used to destroy human civilization but thinks that good will always triumph over evil. Unfortunately that is not always the case. All you need in one out of control self replicating nanobot to turn the whole planet into gray goo. Only one artificial intelligence more advanced then humans deciding that humans are not needed to bring on the Terminator scenario. He is gambling that the sophisticated artificial intelligence will be a knight in shining armor arriving just in time to rescue us from destroying ourselves and whisk us to the Promised Land. I am concerned that once we achieve this perfect virtual world we will stagnate as there will be nothing we don’t already know. A world without learning and wonder is no world I want to live in.
Kurzweil seems to think that there will be no significant opposition to this technological transformation. Augustine's Second Law of Socioscience (and engineering) states:
"For every scientific (or engineering) action, there is an equal and opposite social reaction."
The opposition from religions alone should be hard to overcome. We live in a society that can hardly handle cloning. How will we handle transferring ourselves into a machine.
So, when will the singularity occur? Kurzweil thinks it will be around 2040. A mere 33 years from now. Many of us will be alive to see it. Do I think it will happen? I’m not sure. I am definitely not as optimistic as Kurzweil but I have such a fascination with technology that I want to believe in all the good that could come of this. I am just not an apostle … yet.
No comments:
Post a Comment